Interest rate cuts remain possible at some point, but uncertainty related to huge changes in U.S. trade policy make it hard to know how the economy will fare for now and how the U.S. central bank's rate policy should be adjusted,

Federal Reserve officials are prepared to hold their policy rate steady to minimize the risk that President Donald Trump’s tariffs trigger a persistent rise in inflation, even if the labor market softens further.

Recession odds are rising as Trump’s tariffs sink bond yields, oil prices, and stocks. So, too, are the odds of multiple Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.