The issue is that headlines celebrating unicorn startups and their visionary founders are creating a seductive narrative.

"Overconfidence bias occurs when individuals overestimate ... leading to disappointment and a hit to our self-esteem." At work, for example, we might take on things we think we can handle, only ...

Irrational tendencies — including the hot hand, base-rate neglect and sunk cost fallacy — commonly show up in AI systems, ...

The researchers found that this “overconfidence effect” helps explain ... The other is the Dunning-Kruger effect, a well-documented bias in which people with low ability or knowledge in ...

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people wrongly overestimate ... quartile rated their skills far above average. For example, those in the 12th percentile self-rated their ...

For example, an investor who bought stocks in ... success to superior stock-picking ability rather than luck. Overconfidence bias leads investors to underestimate risks because they create a ...