Over the past 20 years, the average one-year real rate has been a negative-0.8%. If U.S. inflation over the next 12 months is higher than over the past 12 months, the real one-year Treasury yield would be lower than 1.

The Fed’s dot plot is a chart that records each Fed official’s projection for the central bank’s key short-term interest rate. The dot plot is updated every three months and is meant to provide insight into the Fed’s future rate decisions,

As 2024 illustrated, zealous attention placed on small shifts in the median rate projection isn’t always a useful guide to the economic outlook.